The Monty Hall Paradox

Over the years, one fact has been very subtly revealed to me by chance. That fact is..that there will always be a finite probability that I do not understand probability. That was recently underscored by my chance encounter with the Monty Hall Paradox, a seemingly obvious problem with a not so obvious solution. For folks who have come across this and still have a niggling doubt about it, I have laid out all the permutations in the below diagram along with the associated explanation. Needless to say, I had to do this to convince my self first of all.

Prerequisites for reading further:

1) What is the Monty Hall Paradox? Why on Earth do we have wikipedia? Please go here -> Monty Hall
2) An interest in Mathematics and/or
3) Extreme Boredom :-)

Ok, since you are already here, lets get to the solution. Here are the scenarios

 Explanation:
 Lets take the first three rows from the above snapshot. Here, the prize is behind the first door and the three rows list out the three possible choices that the player can make.
The player's choice is mentioned under the "Original Choice" column.
The next column shows the final outcome provided the player decides not to switch while the subsequent column shows the result in case he had decided to switch.
Taking the second row as an example, the prize is behind Door 1, the player chooses Door 2, the host then opens Door 3. The player has the option of sticking with his original choice (Door 2) and lose or switch to the only other remaining door i.e Door 1 and consequently win.

The overall success probability for all the scenarios is listed below and as counter intuitive as it may seem at first, the results speak for themselves.

The life lessons I gathered from this are
1) Your first choice is likely to be the wrong one
2) If you get the chance - Switch :-D

Shillong Lajong is one of the well known Football Clubs from the North East of India and recently they had invited submissions for their club anthem. I wrote a few lines and had it sent to them but they were looking for a composed song and not just the lyrics so I didnt get in. Nevertheless, here is what I had written down and all the best to the club! Proud to be a Shillongite. Khublei Shibun!

The Lajong Song

 Our hearts beat, longing for a story

One of victory and everlasting glory,

Dreams, faith, hope and desire

And a will to win, forged in fire;

The path laid by two,

Is not a dream but true

We walk, we play, so say the wise.

It may rain today but the sun shall rise.

We play for victory, we play for you,

We play for dreams, we play for the view,

We shall win and do no wrong

 We are, we are, Shillong Lajong!!

The Apartment of Nations

Every aspect of modern city life reemphasizes the fact that we are living in an ever shrinking world. On similar lines, I was wondering if we could draw a parallel between the world as it is today and something that we all can relate to, namely - Our home.

So here is the analogy, let us imagine the world to be a one bedroom apartment and different rooms to be represented by different countries.

The Drawing Room -  This room is where we can sit around relaxing all day while all the work happens around us. Its a constant source of entertainment and news. It is the most well lit and decorated room in the house and typically also has the latest technology installed within its walls like our TVs, home theaters, music systems, wi-fi routers et all.No other country can boast of all these features apart from the U S of A.

The Kitchen - A room which always has an aroma and flavor around it. Resplendent with history and culture and tasty delights. A room which historically was a neglected, non glamorous aspect of the house but of late has assumed an exalted status.The heat, smoke and mess comes with the territory. Welcome to INDIA!

The Dining Room - This is where all the culinary delights from the kitchen meet the guests from the living room.A room which was historically the center of attraction with elaborate dining tables, maybe even a fireplace and silver cutlery and is now only a shade of its former glory. It now serves as a place for homely discussions and general chit chat.This is probably very close to how we perceive the UK

The Storeroom/Larder - A room that houses every possible article that be conceived of from old toothbrushes to maybe even a washing machine. A room that starts out small with only a few things in it but gradually starts bursting at the seams and threatens to take over the house. A room that is unvisited most of the time but always there when we need something. nǐ hǎo everyone- This is CHINA.

 The Bedroom -  Time to relax, be free, think about the finer aspects of life, art, music and science. A room that is designed around our preferences, a room for watching a movie, reading a book or just catching up on sleep. Such a wide range of possibilities - Its impossible to limit it to just a country alone. This can only be Europe, ranging from German engineering to French literature and art and everything else in between.

The Restrooms - A lot of clean up needed here, a house for bacteria and a potential to wreck the entire house if its not taken care of properly. The room which you wouldn't show around to your guests, a room that's pretty much doing that same thing that it was 200 years ago.The germs from this room can affect every room in the house but most severely the Kitchen. The eternal bad neighbor - PAKISTAN

Hope you enjoyed the analogy! Thoughts welcome.


 

Home Grown Chillis

Modern life with all its conveniences and nuances does rob us of some of the finer aspects of life. As life has gotten more and more complicated we sometimes fail to appreciate how even some of the basic necessities of life are magically available to us. For instance - food.
Most city kids probably wouldn't even know if a pineapple grows on trees or underground and thats probably not a good thing. Cities with their stone walls limit the scope for green fields but I think that gardening is a hobby that everyone should take a shot at. I use the term hobby loosely, you can grow a shrub if you want to but I think you should try it. It will take you back to your roots(Pun intended).
My mom being an avid proponent of the powers of some herbs maintains an active garden at home and my wife being a foodie with a taste for chillies that are as hot as lava has planted a few chilli plants brought from Assam. These are a variety of  chilli called Bhoot Jholokia and were the hottest chillies in the World till last year I think. (Now they are no 2- Respect)
I like spicy stuff myself and so I initially took up the routine work of  watering the plants and found that to be a very relaxing thing to do at the end of a hectic day. One thing led to another and I had to do a lot of reading on how to get those chilli plants to survive as they are not native to this part of India and these plants are very prone to some pests. Here are my top 3 tips for a healthy chilli plant based on experience. I hope someone finds it useful.

1)  Quality of the Soil - Ensure that the soil you use is of good quality, mix it with some organic fertilizer if needed. Also, mix the solid with some sand/gravel. The idea is that the pot where you plant the seeds should not get water logged. Sand and rocks allow the water to percolate through the soil and prevents it from just running off the top.

2) Water - Water the plants preferably twice a day but if that not possibly then once a day is good enough.When the plants are flowering and the chillies are growing, water every alternate day. This forces the plant to retain water and the chilli turns out bigger and spicier. Try to sprinkle the water on the leaves as there are a lot of pests that lay eggs under the leaves and regular cleaning will save you a lot of grief later.

3) Pests - I  had some pesky little bugs pestering my garden.The underside of the chilli leaves seemed to have white spots comprising of hundreds of tiny eggs. A little googling and common sense led me to believe that I had a white fly infestation and a couple of websites seemed to suggest that the extract of the Neem tree (Azadirachta indica) was the solution. So I ended up buying a Neem oil extract based pesticide and that worked wonders. I would suggest to get a bottle of such a pesticide and keep it handy.

Happy gardening!!!

 

In the Arms of an Archipelago

As the calm and serene waves of green
Below the surface wage a battle unseen
Tumultuous thoughts ebb and flow
Darkness of desire, dreams aglow

 

 

As solitary islands lie amidst the waves
Needs of life mingle with wants & craves
The overwhelming desire to absorb it all
The ocean, the sky; sights big and small

 

Like drops of rain mingled with the mist
Little grains of sand cascading from my fist
Little joys of life are few and far between
While we dwell incessantly on what has been

 

As sand gives way beneath running feet
At the heavenly place where earth, land and sky meet
The past yields to a glorious future yet to be
Life, here I come. I have an answer to thee

Lets make it simple..Cause we are idiots!

Quote:  Things should be made as simple as possible, but not any simpler.   Einstein, Albert

 Unfortunately, it seems that Einstein's intent has failed to impress upon our generation.The context behind this statement of his has long been forgotten and what remains is just what we see now. To some extent I do agree that simple solutions are usually the best but we do tend to forget the latter part of his quote "not any simpler"

So the pertinent question is how do we know when we have reached the limit of simplicity and should not go further even if its possible to do so? And why did Einstein even put this clause in? Shouldnt everything just get better the simpler we can make it?

I think that what he was probably implying was that we should not simplify anything to a point where it loses its very essence. He was looking at Grand Unification and wanted to find an all encompassing logic that would explain all the known forces in nature. It would have simplified Physics, yes, but would it have made it so simple that a layman would understand it? NO. To appreciate the implications of such a theory, a person first needs to understand why it is needed in the first place. If it became so simple that it could be explained to a child, it would in some sense lose its significance.

Our generation somehow seems to not understand this concept. I remember having a spirited discussion a few years ago with one of my colleagues regarding the functionality of a software tool that I developed for my project. I was of the view that the tools purpose was to take out the monotony of repetitive tasks and hence improve productivity while still requiring that the person using the tool retain the knowledge of why and what is being done. My colleague on the other hand was of the view that the tool should be so enhanced that it would automate the entire task itself so that the person using it would not need to use any higher brain function. I disagreed then and I disagree now. I will not be held accountable for supporting mediocrity and taking the fun and talent out of doing a job.

Unfortunately, I see the same attitude running rampant across our lives. We now have modern art for instance. I dont understand it so I may get a few brickbats here but I honestly do not see why a few random splashes and brush strokes are awe inducing. Some of these look like scribblings of a child. It may be good to go ga ga over such a  painting made by a retarded Chimpanzee but  by a full grown human? Come on!!
What has happened is that we have reduced art to a level such that "anyone" can do it! Its so simple, right? WRONG!!!!

Another instance is modern hobbies. A hobby used to mean a passion, something that would not really be a value add in ones life but a pure indulgent diversion. One that stimulated ones mind and/or physical being. People collected stamps, coins, read books, studied the arts and sciences, did gardening etc. All these involved some amount of understanding the relevant domain and over time some even ended up becoming experts in those fields. And now we have hobbies such as Photography!! Photography is a fantastic hobby and the "real" photographers I know have traveled to locations just to take a photo, have waited for hours for the sunset or sunrise to capture a single snapshot and have cried over a botched reel.What we have now for the most part is a bunch of wannabes with expensive equipment. A digital camera and Photoshop, take 100 snaps and atleast one will turn out good, then go and make it black and white with the click of a button and voila, we have a Photographer!!

One more I have seen is the achievements and talents people list on their resumes. Till a few years ago, a talent meant something that you could do better than average. Now talent means the ability to do something along with a few others. There is no individual sense of accomplishment, no striving for perfection, no goal to achieve. A talent such as drawing, singing, dancing, mimicry etc all entail some amount of practice, dedication
and hard work. What we have now as achievement is "Took part in Fashion Show". In short, I wore clothes and I walked. The only achievement here being the fact it takes some guts to walk up on a ramp with 100's staring. Not bad as a dare but a talent? Seriously?

We really need to take a step back and see where we are headed for the future if this trend continues. One of the downsides of modern living is that we are relying more and more on external devices to supplement our capabilities. Now, don't get me wrong, using a tractor instead of a couple of cows to plough the field is a good idea. In fact anything that cuts down of the amount of time and effort spent on a task is a good thing. What is dangerous is the tendency to use devices that limit the functioning of the human mind, the mind that distinguishes us from the animals in the first place.

Quote: Lets make our lives Simple, not our brains!! Samrat Bhattacharjee

When Brains become scarce…

Once upon a not so long time ago a farmer had a few good cows. They provided him with milk and ploughed his fields. He got a good harvest year after year, grew richer, bought more cows, bought more land and was the happiest man around. The cows got a good share of the harvest, grew healthier, worked harder and were the envy of the bovine kingdom.

Then one year the monsoons failed and the harvest was bad. The farmer then decided to introduce a few “processes and policies to optimize his service offering and ensure that his profits remained the same”. He reasoned that land was his asset and the cows his liability so he decided on the obvious course of action. He organized cow races and the slowest ones were taken to the slaughter house while the ones that remained were now burdened with extra work. The cows had no option, they worked harder for fear of the slaughtering house and the farmer was happy.

A few years later, the market price of his crops dropped. He still wanted the same profits. Land was still his asset and the cows his liability. The solution was again obvious. Over the years the cows had become used to running the annual race so most of them were running equally well. So he classified the cows on

a) Milk producing ability

b) Amount of hay consumed

c) Amount of cow dung produced and

d) Amount of time spent on the field

This time however, he couldn’t slaughter them so he decided that since he needed the best cows he gave them a bigger share of the harvest compared to the other cows. The relatively poor performing cows had to do the same work with less food and hence they became worse and slowly wandered off to other fields. The farmer was happy. He had the best cows and he had the same profit.

The following year a fairly large percentage of his crops were destroyed by pests. Land =asset, cows =liability. Logic still holds. So he reasoned that if the poorer performing cows had been able to work with a lesser quantity of food a year ago then the best cows could do the same. So the best cows were given a lesser share of the harvest and still expected to perform equally well. These cows also slowly wandered off to greener pastures. The farmer decided that he didn’t really need so many cows so he went to the market and got a few pigs, donkeys and camels.

The donkeys could work a lot but couldn’t really give good milk. The pigs could be sold for meat but were useless in all other areas. The camels could take a lot of heat but they just stood tall over the others and just stared. However, the farmer judged all these animals on the same parameters.

The cows couldn’t work as hard as the donkeys, couldn’t be sold regularly for meat and neither were they as tall as the camels and they figured out that no matter how hard they tried they would never be able to do those things so they too moved away. The farmer was now left with just the pigs, donkeys and camels and he made the donkeys plough the field, the camel give milk and the pigs provided the manure but none of them could plough the field as well as the cows which was his most basic need. So he went to the market and bought a few new cows. These new cows learned by looking at the donkeys, the pigs and the camel who themselves were not doing what they did best. So the farmer ended up with a lot of cows, pigs, donkeys and camels but no animal was doing what it was meant to.

If only the farmer had looked at the cows as his assets and if only the solution had not been so “obvious” and if only he had not tried to keep his profits the same during the hard years he may have still had a lot of the older good cows…..

Moooooo……………………